The Real Numbers: JANUARY 2018

Don Comments: The point of these numbers is the P. P. C. is MULTIPLES of present GDP, I. E. tremendous slack in the economy. ‘Exploding’ the economy with my reforms is possible with the potential for over 100% increase in full time workers and I don’t know how to calculate whether the G. D. P. would

explode’ by doubling or quintupling to about $95 Trillion from present $19 Trillion.



These are my private recalculations of employment numbers that changes the appearance of the official numbers I. e. applying different arithmetic combinations, etc. I've extensively rearranged and even more so since last month the spreadsheet and added other calculations to notice. One to notice is the different ways to calculate percentage searching. It varies between 1.9% to 8.7% depending on the divisor. Divisors include Population, ‘Able’, and Working.

Of course the number searching is an outrage with all these comparisons.

Source: www.bls.gov tables A1, A8.



WORST OF THESE NEW NUMBERS:

Too many are not working full time.

I suggest that Full Time jobs sustain the economy. Not even 2/5ths work full time.

I suggest full time workers are the pillar of the economy.

Are supporting all Americans.

The few workers are supporting those aren't working full time.

The number of “Full Time Workers” can double.

Full Time Working even to total Able is 50.8%.

6.1% of ‘Idle’ this January and 1.9% to total Population are the only ones looking for work.





Of Labor Force:

About ½ work full time.

More than 2 people don't work at all to 3 who work any job.

“Participation Rate”

Total Raw Number Searching for Work (“Officially Unemployed”).

Total 'Idle' is a huge 102.56 Million.

Employing rate is the actual percentage working any job regardless of the work with unemployed or underemployed uncounted. This number keeps growing: Idle, but the percentage idle continues to remain the same.



Total Underemployment Rate and Total Underemployment:

From:

Total Searching for Work (“Officially Unemployed”)

Plus “Employed Part Time for Economic Reasons”

Plus Want A Job

P. T. for Econ Reasons plus Want a Job is about the Population of New York.

Officially unemployed which means looking for work (shown elsewhere).



WHOLE SPREADSHEET SHOWN AT BOTTOM OF PAGE



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(NEW: ) YEAR OVER YEAR below comments.



My point:

Using conventional / classical economics, THERE NO MONEY! Supply-Side Economics: Give people Money! People don't have the 'needed' money and the Federal Reserve is the only one that has it. (Inflation occurs when increase in money supply, increases demand and no increase in amount of supply. I. e. sudden increase in demand and no increase in supply amount.)



A Conventional Solution Title:

Econoclasts: The Rebels Who Sparked the Supply-Side Revolution and Restored American Prosperity

With Modern Monetary Theory, Sovereign Money, it'll be alright to “Deck the Malls Wads of Money” by the Federal Reserve, or the U. S. Economy will dither for the next ½ decade... and keep lumbering with onerous growth.

Data Sources: www.bls.gov

WORST NEWS OF THESE NUMBERS OVER PAST ONE YEAR:

(Left Columns).

I see no significant change in these numbers, except Employment / Unemployment Measures.

Unemployment number are good but it is a recovering economy.

With my reform, I envision a >50% increase in the workforce and much, much more for underdeveloped countries with e. g. 5% FT Workers. The economic system would require nearly all people to work and, expecting it to work as envisioned, there’d be massive labor shortages. In the system, it is THEFT to take any products without working for it. But when one works, he or she is entitled to the benefits of the economy. There would be every incentive to work and every disincentive not to work.

A real great bonus to the system is that there are no taxes; the government won’t have its hands in citizens’ pockets. The government will have priority to acquire products and merely takes products only out of the market.

About 12th January, 2016, I decided to make the audacious prediction of a recession by January, 2018. Such bold predictions are usually wrong with a guesstimated 70% inaccuracy.

Yes, the 70% happened. WRONG! As of April / July 2018 MAYBE then. Greenspan was way too early saying ' irrational exuberism ' but it happened a few years later. Maybe I'm early.

Here were the reasons for my leap of 30% possibility:

1. History. Ten years since 2008

2. Collapse of Oil. I was concerned about world economies depend on revenue from oil sales.

3. A year of declining profits on Wall Street (a guest on NBR on PBS in late January)

4. Allen Greenspan talked about low interest rates and I inferred that the continuing terrorism threat is contributing to instability and fear to trigger a recession.

5. Declining sales forecast for construction vehicles (Diesel Progress).

6. A few days later I combined these factors in late January, Fed announced concern for world economy.





Jan., 2017

Change

A.P.R.

Dec, 2017

Jan., 2018

Difference

January (NSA)

254.742

1.367

0.5%

255.949

256.109

0.160

Able:

128.133

-0.823

-0.6%

126.764

127.310

0.546

Not Work Full Time:

126.609

2.190

1.7%

129.185

128.799

-0.386

Work Full Time:

101.2%

-2.4%

-2.4%

98.1%

98.8%

0.7%

Possible More F. T. Workers:

61.0%

-0.4%

-0.7%

60.5%

60.6%

0.2%

Pop Percent Not Work F. T :

39.0%

0.4%

1.0%

39.5%

39.4%

-0.2%

Population Percent Work F. T :

198.243

0.084

0.0%

197.604

198.327

0.723

Population Not Work F. T :

102.944

-0.437

-0.4%

101.769

102.507

0.738

Idle:

Jan., 2017

Change

A.P.R.

Dec, 2017

Jan., 2018

Difference

Real Joblessness

12.6%

-1.2%

-10.1%

11.1%

11.4%

0.3%

Real Unemployent Rate”

4.5%

-0.6%

-14.9%

3.9%

3.9%

0.0%

Official Unemployent Rate”

16.097

-1.576

-10.9%

14.035

14.521

0.486

Real Unemployed” Total

7.170

-0.892

-14.2%

6.286

6.278

-0.008

Official Unemployed

5.449

-0.378

-7.5%

4.877

5.071

0.194

From Want Job

3.478

-0.306

-9.6%

2.872

3.172

0.300

Work P. T. For Econ Reasons

Jan., 2017

Change

A.P.R.

Dec, 2017

Jan., 2018

Difference

Official Percent Numbers:

3.4%

-0.3%

-8.1%

3.0%

3.2%

0.1%

From Want Job

2.2%

-0.2%

-10.3%

1.8%

2.0%

0.2%

To W. P. T. For Econ Reasons

13.7%

-0.1%

-0.9%

13.8%

13.5%

-0.3%

To Not Work P. T. / E. R.

15.8%

-0.3%

-2.1%

15.6%

15.5%

-0.1%

To Total Part Time

62.4%

0.0%

0.0%

62.7%

62.4%

-0.3%

Participation Rate

64.8%

-0.6%

-1.0%

63.4%

64.1%

0.7%

To Idle Percent

19.4%

1.0%

4.8%

21.0%

20.4%

-0.6%

Percent Difference NFT to Particip.

20.4%

-0.9%

-4.7%

19.5%

19.4%

-0.1%

Percent Difference FT to Particip.

80.6%

-1.0%

-1.2%

79.0%

79.6%

0.6%

To Not Working F. T.

79.6%

0.9%

1.1%

80.5%

80.6%

0.1%

To Working F. T.

Jan., 2017

Change

A.P.R.

Dec, 2017

Jan., 2018

Difference

Percent To Population

2.2%

-0.3%

-15.0%

1.9%

1.9%

0.0%

Official Unemployed

1.7%

-0.1%

-8.2%

1.5%

1.6%

0.1%

From Want Job

1.1%

-0.1%

-10.4%

0.9%

1.0%

0.1%

To W. P. T. For Econ Reasons

6.7%

-0.1%

-1.1%

6.8%

6.6%

-0.2%

To Not Work P. T. / E. R.

7.8%

-0.2%

-2.3%

7.6%

7.6%

-0.1%

To Total Part Time

31.7%

-0.4%

-1.1%

31.1%

31.3%

0.2%

To Idle Percent

46.7%

0.2%

0.5%

47.2%

47.0%

-0.2%

To Working

60.6%

0.5%

0.9%

61.2%

61.1%

-0.1%

Percent Difference NFT to Particip.

61.0%

-0.4%

-0.7%

60.5%

60.6%

0.2%

Percent Difference FT to Particip.

39.4%

-0.5%

-1.4%

38.8%

38.9%

0.1%

To Not Working F. T.

39.0%

0.4%

1.0%

39.5%

39.4%

-0.2%

To Working F. T.

Jan., 2017

Change

A.P.R.

Dec, 2017

Jan., 2018

Difference

Able Percent

2.8%

-0.4%

-14.8%

2.5%

2.5%

0.0%

Official Unemployed

2.1%

-0.2%

-8.0%

1.9%

2.0%

0.1%

From Want Job

1.4%

-0.1%

-10.2%

1.1%

1.2%

0.1%

To W. P. T. For Econ Reasons

8.5%

-0.1%

-0.9%

8.6%

8.4%

-0.2%

To Not Work P. T. / E. R.

9.9%

-0.2%

-2.1%

9.8%

9.7%

-0.1%

To Total Part Time

37.6%

0.0%

-0.1%

37.3%

37.6%

0.3%

Non-Participation

40.4%

-0.4%

-1.0%

39.8%

40.0%

0.3%

To Idle Percent

49.7%

0.6%

1.2%

50.5%

50.3%

-0.2%

Percent Difference NFT to Particip.

50.3%

-0.6%

-1.2%

49.5%

49.7%

0.2%

Percent Difference FT to Particip.

50.3%

-0.6%

-1.2%

49.5%

49.7%

0.2%

To Not Working F. T.

49.7%

0.6%

1.2%

50.5%

50.3%

-0.2%

To Working F. T.

59.6%

0.4%

0.6%

60.2%

60.0%

-0.3%

To Working

Jan., 2017

Change

A.P.R.

Dec, 2017

Jan., 2018

Difference

Working Percent

4.7%

-0.6%

-15.6%

4.1%

4.1%

0.0%

To Officially Unemployed

3.6%

-0.3%

-8.7%

3.2%

3.3%

0.1%

From Want Job

2.3%

-0.2%

-10.9%

1.9%

2.1%

0.2%

To W. P. T. For Econ Reasons

14.3%

-0.2%

-1.6%

14.3%

14.1%

-0.3%

To Not Work P. T. / E. R.

16.6%

-0.4%

-2.8%

16.2%

16.1%

-0.1%

To Total Part Time

63.1%

-0.4%

-0.7%

61.9%

62.6%

0.7%

Non-Participation

67.8%

-1.1%

-1.6%

66.0%

66.7%

0.7%

To Idle Percent

15.6%

1.5%

8.9%

17.8%

17.1%

-0.7%

Percent Difference NFT to Particip.

16.6%

-0.4%

-2.8%

16.2%

16.1%

-0.1%

Percent Difference FT to Particip.

84.4%

-1.5%

-1.8%

82.2%

82.9%

0.7%

To Not Working F. T.

83.4%

0.4%

0.5%

83.8%

83.9%

0.1%

To Working F. T.

Jan., 2017

Change

A.P.R.

Dec, 2017

Jan., 2018

Difference

Work F. T. Percent

5.7%

-0.8%

-16.2%

4.9%

4.9%

0.0%

Official Unemployed

4.3%

-0.4%

-9.3%

3.8%

3.9%

0.2%

From Want Job

2.7%

-0.3%

-11.5%

2.2%

2.5%

0.2%

To W. P. T. For Econ Reasons

17.1%

-0.4%

-2.1%

17.1%

16.8%

-0.3%

To Not Work P. T. / E. R.

19.9%

-0.6%

-3.3%

19.3%

19.3%

-0.1%

Total Work P. T.

75.6%

3.9%

5.0%

78.8%

79.6%

0.8%

Non-Participation

81.3%

-6.6%

-8.8%

73.9%

74.7%

0.8%

Idle Percent

Jan., 2017

Change

A.P.R.

Dec, 2017

Jan., 2018

Difference

Numbers

158.968

0.912

0.6%

160.466

159.880

-0.586

Participation

151.798

1.804

1.2%

154.180

153.602

-0.578

Workers

21.711

-0.080

-0.4%

22.123

21.631

-0.492

To Not Work P. T. / E. R.

25.189

-0.386

-1.6%

24.995

24.803

-0.192

Total Part Time

95.774

0.455

0.5%

95.483

96.229

0.746

Non-Participation

324.852

2.274

0.7%

326.789

327.126

0.337

Population

Jan., 2017

Change

A.P.R.

Dec, 2017

Jan., 2018

Difference

Not Work F. T. Percent

5.6%

-0.7%

-13.5%

5.0%

4.9%

0.0%

Official Unemployed

4.3%

-0.3%

-6.8%

3.8%

4.0%

0.1%

From Want Job

2.7%

-0.2%

-8.9%

2.3%

2.5%

0.2%

To W. P. T. For Econ Reasons

16.9%

0.0%

0.3%

17.5%

17.0%

-0.5%

To Not Work P. T. / E. R.

19.7%

-0.2%

-0.9%

19.7%

19.5%

-0.2%

Total Work P. T.

80.3%

0.2%

0.2%

80.3%

80.5%

0.2%

Idle Percent

75.6%

-0.9%

-1.2%

73.9%

74.7%

0.8%

Non-Participation

Jan., 2017

Change

A.P.R.

Dec, 2017

Jan., 2018

Difference

Idle Percent

7.0%

-0.8%

-13.7%

6.2%

6.1%

-0.1%

Officially Unemployed

5.3%

-0.3%

-7.0%

4.8%

4.9%

0.2%

From Want Job

3.4%

-0.3%

-9.2%

2.8%

3.1%

0.3%

To W. P. T. For Econ Reasons

21.1%

0.0%

0.1%

21.7%

21.1%

-0.6%

To Not Work P. T. / E. R.

24.5%

-0.3%

-1.1%

24.6%

24.2%

-0.4%

Total Work P. T.

93.0%

0.8%

0.9%

93.8%

93.9%

0.1%

Non-Participation

Jan., 2017

Change

A.P.R.

Dec, 2017

Jan., 2018

Difference

Non-Participation

7.5%

-1.0%

-14.8%

6.6%

6.5%

-0.1%

Searching

5.7%

-0.4%

-8.0%

5.1%

5.3%

0.2%

Want a Job

3.6%

-0.3%

-10.2%

3.0%

3.3%

0.3%

To W. P. T. For Econ Reasons

22.7%

-0.2%

-0.8%

23.2%

22.5%

-0.7%

Not Work PT FER

26.3%

-0.5%

-2.0%

26.2%

25.8%

-0.4%

Total Part Time

Jan., 2017

Change

A.P.R.

Dec, 2017

Jan., 2018

Difference

Other Ratios






Total Working PT

28.5%

-3.2%

-12.5%

25.1%

25.3%

0.2%

Searching

21.6%

-1.2%

-5.8%

19.5%

20.4%

0.9%

Want a Job

13.8%

-1.0%

-8.0%

11.5%

12.8%

1.3%

To W. P. T. For Econ Reasons

86.2%

1.0%

1.2%

88.5%

87.2%

-1.3%

To Not Work P. T. / E. R.

Jan., 2017

Change

A.P.R.

Dec, 2017

Jan., 2018

Difference

Not Work PT FER

33.0%

-4.0%

-13.8%

28.4%

29.0%

0.6%

Searching

25.1%

-1.7%

-7.1%

22.0%

23.4%

1.4%

Want a Job

16.0%

-1.4%

-9.2%

13.0%

14.7%

1.7%

To W. P. T. For Econ Reasons

60.2%

-0.1%

-0.1%

59.5%

60.2%

0.7%

Non-Participation / Participation

166.0%

0.2%

0.1%

168.1%

166.1%

-1.9%

Participation / Non-Participation