The Real Numbers: NOVEMBER, 2018
Don Comments: The point of these numbers is the P. P. C. is MULTIPLES of present GDP, I. E. tremendous slack in the economy. ‘Exploding’ the economy with my reforms is possible with the potential for over 100% increase in full time workers and I don’t know how to calculate whether the G. D. P. could
‘explode’ by doubling or quintupling to about $105 Trillion from present $21 Trillion.
These are my private recalculations of employment numbers that changes the appearance of the official numbers.
Source: www.bls.gov tables A1, A8 and Population Clock.
WORST OF THESE NEW NUMBERS:
Too many are not working full time.
In fact, near 199 Million or 60.3% don't work full time.
I suggest that Full Time jobs sustain the economy.
Full time workers support all Americans.
The few workers are supporting those aren't working (128.181 Million) full time.
The number of “Full Time Workers” can near double:
5.6% of ‘Idle’ (1 of 18 in 101.693 Million) are the only ones looking for work.
Of Labor Force:
Not even 2/5ths work full time which I suggest is the pillar of the economy.
More than 3/5ths or 62.5% people are idle to 80.2% work full time (4/5ths).
About ½ work full time and see the numbers and percentage of:
Too many are underemployed and working merely part time.
“Participation Rate” hasn't budged.
Mort Zuckerburg's of McLaughlin Group, and my concern. We say many capitulated; I. e. gave up in despair. It's trending bad for many years!
Total Searching for Work (“Officially Unemployed”).
Employing rate is the actual percentage working any job regardless of the work.
This number keeps growing: Idle, but the percentage idle continues to remains about the same.
Total Underemployment Rate and Total Underemployment:
Total Searching for Work (“Officially Unemployed”)
Plus “Employed Part Time for Economic Reasons”
Meaning: Only 'junk' jobs, out of expertise positions, or contributing to underemployment and slack resources.
This metric trends growth in number and percent.
Plus Want A Job.
Officially unemployed which means looking for work (shown elsewhere).
Each of these numbers are the size of the major cities of U. S.
The number: 15.268 Million
Real unemployment is 261% of official
WHOLE SPREADSHEET SHOWN AT BOTTOM OF PAGE
There has been a turnaround.
40% are Full Time workers for whole Population of 328 million
Full time workers exceed Not working Full time but only by 2% .
This isn't a breakthrough.
Percentages or other metrics unchanged based on large numbers.
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(NEW: ) YEAR OVER YEAR below comments.
Using conventional economics, THERE NO MONEY! Supply-Side Economics: Give people Money! People don't have the 'needed' money and the Federal Reserve is the only one that has it. (Inflation occurs when increase in money supply, increases demand and no increase in amount of supply. I. e. sudden increase in demand and no increase in supply amount.)
A Conventional Solution:
Econoclasts: The Rebels Who Sparked the Supply-Side Revolution and Restored American Prosperity
With Modern Monetary Theory, Sovereign Money, it'll be alright to “Deck the Malls Wads of Money” by the Federal Reserve, or the U. S. Economy will dither for the next ½ decade... and keep lumbering with onerous growth.
Data Sources: www.bls.gov
WORST NEWS OF THESE NUMBERS OVER PAST ONE YEAR:
I see no significant change in these numbers, except Employment / Unemployment Measures.
Unemployment number are good but it is a recovering economy.
With my reform, I envision a >50% increase in the workforce and much, much more for underdeveloped countries with e. g. 5% FTW. The economic system would require nearly all people to work and, expecting it to work as envisioned, there’d be massive labor shortages. In the system, it is THEFT to take any products without working for it. But when one works, he or she is entitled to the benefits of the economy. There would be every incentive to work and every disincentive not to work.
A real great bonus to the system is that there are no taxes; the government won’t have its hands in citizens’ pockets. The government will have priority to acquire products and merely takes products only out of the market.
About 12th January, 2016, I decided to make the audacious prediction of a recession by January, 2018. Such bold predictions are usually wrong with a guesstimated 70% inaccuracy. Here are the reasons:
History. Ten years since 2008
Collapse of Oil. I was concerned about world economies depend on revenue from oil sales.
Further confirmation was from NBR on PBS in late January or early February when a guest said that oil industry is the health of the world economy.
A year of declining profits on Wall Street (a guest on NBR on PBS in late January)
Allen Greenspan talked about low interest rates and I inferred that the continuing terrorism threat is contributing to instability and fear to trigger a recession.
Declining sales forecast for construction vehicles (Diesel Progress).
A few days later I combined these factors in late January, Fed announced concern for world economy.
I really hope I'm wrong.
Now 3/2018, I am wrong. This shows I'm early and that means nothing. I can't make any prediction. Similarly, an old issue of Pennwell's Financial Journal, predicted stable oil prices, but they collapsed to $30 per barrel low. It was an intellectual, 'Whoops'.
That's another factor, petroleum prices have skyrocketed since then, stopping a collapse in the world economy.
If you see a metric that seems indicative, please Contact Me.
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(NSA: non-seasonally adjusted. More text and comments under)
(FORMAT: Numbers left to right: a year ago, difference, percentage, last month, current month, difference) .