The Real Numbers: NOVEMBER, 2016
Don Comments: The point of these numbers is the P. P. C. is MULTIPLES of present GDP, I. E. tremendous slack in the economy. ‘Exploding’ the economy with my reforms is possible with the potential for over 100% increase in full time workers and I don’t know how to calculate whether the G. D. P. would
‘explode’ by doubling or quintupling to about $94 Trillion from present $19 Trillion.
These are my private recalculations of employment numbers that changes the appearance of the official numbers. Source: www.bls.gov tables A1, A8.
WORST OF THESE NEW NUMBERS:
Too many are not working full time.
I suggest that Full Time jobs sustain the economy.
Are supporting all Americans.
The few workers are supporting those aren't working full time.
The number of “Full Time Workers” can more double:
Decrease in working FT to total Population
6.9% of ‘Idle’ this November are the only ones looking for work.
Of Labor Force:
Not even 3/8ths work full time which I suggest is the pillar of the economy.
Less than ½ work full time.
More than 2 people don't work at all to 3 who work any job.
Employing Rate.
Idle.
Too many are underemployed and working merely part time.
“Participation Rate”
Mort Zuckerburg's of McLaughlin Group, and my concern. We say many capitulated; I. e. gave up in despair. It's trending bad for many years!
Total Searching for Work (“Officially Unemployed”).
Total Working
Employing rate is the actual percentage working any job regardless of the work.
This number keeps growing: Idle, but the percentage idle continues to remain the same.
Total Underemployment Rate and Total Underemployment:
From:
Total Searching for Work (“Officially Unemployed”)
Plus “Employed Part Time for Economic Reasons”
Meaning: Only 'junk' jobs, out of expertise positions, or contributing to underemployment and slack resources.
Plus Want A Job
Officially unemployed which means looking for work (shown elsewhere).
WHOLE SPREADSHEET SHOWN AT BOTTOM OF PAGE
(NEW: ) YEAR OVER YEAR below comments.
My point:
Using conventional economics, THERE NO MONEY! Supply-Side Economics: Give people Money! People don't have the 'needed' money and the Federal Reserve is the only one that has it. (Inflation occurs when increase in money supply, increases demand and no increase in amount of supply. I. e. sudden increase in demand and no increase in supply amount.)
A Conventional Solution:
Econoclasts: The Rebels Who Sparked the Supply-Side Revolution and Restored American Prosperity
With Modern Monetary Theory, Sovereign Money, it'll be alright to “Deck the Malls Wads of Money” by the Federal Reserve, or the U. S. Economy will dither for the next ½ decade... and keep lumbering with onerous growth.
Data Sources: www.bls.gov
WORST NEWS OF THESE NUMBERS OVER PAST ONE YEAR:
(Right Columns).
I see no significant change in these numbers, except Employment / Unemployment Measures.
Unemployment number are good but it is a recovering economy.
With my reform, I envision a >50% increase in the workforce and much, much more for underdeveloped countries with e. g. 5% FTW. The economic system would require nearly all people to work and, expecting it to work as envisioned, there’d be massive labor shortages. In the system, it is THEFT to take any products without working for it. But when one works, he or she is entitled to the benefits of the economy. There would be every incentive to work and every disincentive not to work.
A real great bonus to the system is that there are no taxes; the government won’t have its hands in citizens’ pockets. The government will have priority to acquire products and merely takes products only out of the market.
About 12th January, 2016, I decided to make the audacious prediction of a recession by January, 2018. Such bold predictions are usually wrong with a guesstimated 70% inaccuracy. Here are the reasons:
History. Ten years since 2008
Collapse of Oil. I was concerned about world economies depend on revenue from oil sales.
Further confirmation was from NBR on PBS in late January or early February when a guest said that oil industry is the health of the world economy.
A year of declining profits on Wall Street (a guest on NBR on PBS in late January)
Allen Greenspan talked about low interest rates and I inferred that the continuing terrorism threat is contributing to instability and fear to trigger a recession.
Declining sales forecast for construction vehicles (Diesel Progress).
The AFC won the 2016 Super Bowl stupidly correlates to bad economy and bad Stock Index performances (almost a joke but true statistical oddity).
A few days later I combined these factors in late January, Fed announced concern for world economy.
I really hope I'm wrong.
FULL SPREADSHEET:
(NSA: non-seasonally adjusted. More text and comments under)
(FORMAT: Numbers left to right: a year ago, difference, percentage, last month, current month, difference)